SPECIJALNO U DANASU: Janis Varufakis, profesor ekonomije na Univerzitetu u Atini i bivši ministar finansija Grčke



Dana 12. jula, samit lidera evrozone izdiktirao je svoje uslove predaje grčkom premijeru Aleksisu Ciprasu, koji ih je, prestravljen alternativama, sve prihvatio. Jedan od tih uslova ticao se rasporeda preostale grčke imovine u državnom vlasništvu.

 Lideri evrozone su zahtevali da se grčka javna imovina prebaci u fond nalik Trojhandu, mehanizmu za rasprodaju koji je sličan onom koji je nakon pada Berlinskog zida iskorišćen za brzu privatizaciju celokupne državne imovine Istočne Nemačke u nestajanju, uz ogromne finansijske gubitke i uz razarajuće posledice po iskorišćavanje celokupne državne imovine Istočne Nemačke u nestajanju.

 Taj grčki Trojhand bio bi stacioniran, zamislite, u Luksemburgu i vodila bi ga organizacija pod nadzorom nemačkog ministra finansija Volfganga Šojblea, autora šeme. Tako bi rasprodaja bila završena za tri godine. Ali, dok je rad izvornog Trojhanda bio praćen masivnim investicijama Zapadne Nemačke u infrastrukturu i velikim socijalnim transferima stanovništvu Istočne Nemačke, narod Grčke ne bi dobio nikakvu odgovarajuću nadoknadu.
 Euklid Cakalotos, koji me je pre dve nedelje nasledio na funkciji grčkog ministra finansija, dao je sve od sebe da ublaži najgore aspekte plana za grčki Trojhand. Uspeo je da ostvari to da fond bude stacioniran u Atini, a od grčkih zajmodavaca (takozvane trojke koju čini Evropska komisija, Evropska centralna banka i Međunarodni monetarni fond) je izvukao važan ustupak, tako da se prodaja može razvući na narednih trideset godina, umesto na samo tri. To je bilo od suštinske važnosti, jer će to omogućiti grčkim vlastima da zadrže potcenjenu imovinu dok joj se cena ne vrati na cifre veće od aktuelnih minimalaca koji su posledica recesije.
 Međutim, grčki Trojhand ostaje vredan gađenja i treba da bude mrlja na savesti Evrope. Još gore, on je propuštena prilika.

 Plan je politički toksičan jer će fondom, iako je stacioniran u Grčkoj, zapravo upravljati "trojka". Takođe je finansijski štetan jer će prihodi ići u pravcu isplate onoga što čak i MMF sada priznaje da je dug koji se ne može vratiti. I u ekonomskom smislu je promašaj jer se zbog njega propušta divna prilika za stvaranje domaćih investicija da bi se pomoglo da se ublaži recesioni udar kaznene fiskalne konsolidacije koja je takođe deo "uslova" samita od 12. jula.

 Nije moralo da bude tako. Devetnaestog juna sam nemačkoj vladi i "trojci" predstavio alternativni predlog, kao deo dokumenta s naslovom "Okončanje grčke krize".
 "Grčka vlada predlaže da se javna imovina (osim one koja se odnosi na bezbednost zemlje, javne službe i kulturno nasleđe) objedini u centralni holding  koji će biti razdvojen od državne administracije i kojim će se upravljati kao privatnim entitetom pod pokroviteljstvom grčkog Parlamenta s ciljem da se maksimizira vrednost predmetne imovine i stvori domaći investicioni kanal. Grčka će biti jedini akcionar, ali neće garantovati za njegove obaveze ili dugove."

  Holding bi imao aktivnu ulogu u pripremi imovine za prodaju. On bi "na međunarodnim tržištima kapitala emitovao potpuno obezbeđenu obveznicu" da bi se sakupilo 30-40 milijardi evra (32-43 milijarde dolara), a ta suma bi, "uzimajući u obzir trenutnu vrednost imovine", "bila investirana u modernizaciju i restrukturiranje imovine pod njegovom upravom."
 
 U okviru tog plana je zamišljen investicioni program na tri do četiri godine, što bi rezultiralo "dodatnom potrošnjom od pet odsto BDP-a godišnje", pri čemu aktuelne makroekonomske okolnosti nagoveštavaju "pozitivan multiplikator rasta iznad 1,5", koji "treba da podstakne nominalni rast BDP-a do nivoa iznad pet odsto u narednih nekoliko godina." To bi onda izazvalo "proporcionalno povećanje poreskih prihoda", i samim tim bi "doprinelo fiskalnoj održivosti, istovremeno omogućavajući grčkoj vladi da primenjuje disciplinu u potrošnji bez dodatnog smanjenja socijalne ekonomije."

Po tom scenariju primarni suficit (koji isključuje otplatu kamata) bi "vremenom dostigao magnitudu 'kosmičke brzine', kako u apsolutnim iznosima tako i procentualno". Kao rezultat toga, holding bi za godinu ili dve "dobio bankarsku licencu i tako se preobratio u kompletnu razvojnu banku koja može da prikuplja privatne investicije za Grčku i da ulazi u zajedničke projekte sa Evropskom investicionom bankom."

Razvojna banka koju smo predložili bi "omogućila Vladi da izabere koja će imovina biti privatizovana, a koja neće, istovremeno garantujući da će izabrane privatizacije imati veći uticaj na smanjenje duga." Naposletku, "vrednost imovine treba da se poveća više nego što je zapravo suma potrošena na modernizaciju i restrukturiranje, potpomognuta programom javno-privatnih partnerstava čija će se vrednost povećavati u skladu s verovatnoćom buduće privatizacije."

Naš predlog je naišao na zaglušujuću tišinu. Preciznije rečeno, Evrogrupa, koju čine ministri finansija evrozone i "trojka" nastavili su da govore globalnim medijima da grčke vlasti nemaju da ponude verodostojne inovativne predloge, što je njihova standardna "pesma". Nekoliko dana kasnije, čim su oni koji vladaju situacijom shvatili da je grčka vlada blizu da u potpunosti kapitulira pred svim zahtevima "trojke", uvideli su da je prikladno da Grčkoj nametnu svoj omalovažavajući, neinventivni i štetan Trojhand model.
U trenutku prekretnice u evropskoj istoriji, naša inovativna alternativa je bačena u smeće. Sada je na drugima da je povrate.

Autor je bivši ministar finansija Grčke i profesor ekonomije na Univerzitetu u Atini.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2015.
www.project-syndicate.org

извор: Данас

Колико капирам... фонд под управом ЕУ намењен приватизацији грчке државне имовине је фин начин да се каже како грчка државна имовина иде на добош... који држи ЕУ тројка.

Pa da - kacila sam na prethodnim stranicama - 50 milijardi drz. imovine mora da se slije u taj fond, pola od toga odlazi na banke a tek cetvrtina cifre na investicije a i to cemo da vidimo koliki ce zaista % na kraju biti 

Turkey buzzes weakened Greece


In growing numbers Ankara’s fighter jets test Greek territorial claims.

By Elisabeth Braw,politico.eu

23/7/15, 5:30 AM CET

Turkish fighter jets and military helicopters have dramatically increased their incursions into Greek airspace, according to a study based on data from the Greek military, forcing the cash-strapped Greek air force to respond.

On July 15, six Turkish fighters crossed into Greek airspace 20 times. Their visit followed aerial intrusions by Turkish military helicopters the week before. After a several years of declining numbers, Turkish air incursions into territory claimed by Greece are soaring, and so are the resulting aerial confrontations with the Hellenic Air Force.

“The main reason for the [conflict] is sovereignty concerns over the Aegean region,” said Mustafa Kutlay, an assistant professor at TOBB University of Economics and Technology in Ankara.

Turkey and Greece, he added, recognize each other’s claim to a six nautical mile-wide zone of the Aegean Sea, but Turkey worries that Greece might try to extend that to the full 12 miles permitted under international treaties. This would largely block Turkey from the Aegean. Furthermore, Greece claims 10 miles of air space around the islands, while Turkey recognizes only six miles and argues that its fighters are flying in international air space.
A question of sovereignty

“The Turks are trying to enforce sovereignty over disputed islands and bring Greece to the negotiating table,” said Thanos Dokos, director-general of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy. “What’s worrying are the low-altitude flights, often by helicopters, over these islands.”

Many of the incidents take place within the contentious four-mile radius near the Turkish coast, which Athens considers its territory and Ankara calls international airspace. Below the contested skies are equally disputed waters featuring a group of 16 islands, over which Greece claims sovereignty.

Recently, however, Turkey has become more vocal in rejecting those claims. The June and July incursions again took place above these tiny islets, including Farmakonisi (population 74), Kounelonisi, and Agathonisi. (By virtue of an agreement signed in 1952, Greece administers the disputed airspace for civilian aviation.)



Greece’s Ministry of Defense did not respond to a request for information and comment, but according to statistics collected by Christos Kollias, a Greek defense economist at the University of Thessaly, last year Turkish military helicopters and planes violated Greek-claimed airspace 2,244 times. For this May, Kollias recorded 361 Turkish incursions into Greek airspace.

At the beginning of this decade, Turkish planes entered Greek airspace several hundred times per year, including a record-low 636 times in 2013. That, in turn, was a decline from higher figures in the preceding years, but even the 1,678 incursions in 2009 do not approach the current activity. The result is constant hostile buzzing in the Mediterranean skies as the Hellenic Air Force responds to the intrusions.

“The political rapprochement between two countries [in the early 2000s] and the Greek economic crisis contributed to the decreasing number of dogfights,” noted Kutlay, who is also director of the EU Studies Center at USAK, a Turkish think-tank focusing on security and cooperation. “But the changing security environment in the region seems to have struck a sensitive nerve, and Turkey and Greece have become more sensitive vis-à-vis each other over the Aegean region.”
Dogfights cost money

In its current weakened state Greece hardly poses much of a threat to Turkey. The Turkish General Staff has not given an official reason for its increased air activity, and its spokesman referred inquiries to a local defense attaché, who did not respond.

Greece’s disastrous finances may, however, have encouraged Turkey  to tease its long-time foe (and NATO ally) a bit more than usual, as every Hellenic Air Force scramble costs Greece precious euros.



“In the case of air incursions, you have to react,” said Dokos. “It’s very hard to unilaterally pull back from a situation of military aggression. It’s a tragic situation, because the money we’re spending on dogfights with Turkey is money that we could have spent on other areas of defense.”

The confrontations are a serious matter for both for Athens and Ankara. The two countries almost went to war in 1987 and again in 1996. In 2006 a mock dogfight saw Turkish and Greek F-16s smash into each other, killing the Greek pilot.
Precious resources

The issue is about more than pride. Recent large gas discoveries by Cyprus and Israel have shown that there are lucrative potential deposits under the Mediterranean. Greece is also exploring the possibility of claiming a 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone around the country. Because Greece controls almost all of the islands in the Aegean, such a move could turn the sea into a Greek lake.

Soon after taking office this January, Greece’s nationalist Defense Minister Panos Kammenos traveled to one of the disputed islets, while Turkish Defense Minister İsmet Yılmaz claimed in Parliament that the islands in fact belong to Turkey. And this May, Kammenos proposed building a NATO base on one of the islands so that the alliance could “gain a full overview of Turkey’s behavior in the region.”

Turkey is in the midst of an extremely ambitious air force modernization program that has already seen it upgrade its existing fleet of over 100 F-16 fighter jets. In January, the government approved the purchase of four new F-35 Lockheed Martin fighter jets as well as five Boeing Chinook helicopters; it plans to buy a total of 100 F-35s.

This spring the government also approved a multi-billion dollar program for the development of fighter planes and a regional jet for civilian and military use. The country plans to build several hundred planes by 2023.

Meanwhile, Greece’s military has seen spending shrivel in recent years, and the government had to fend off demands from Greece’s creditors for more steep cuts during recent bailout negotiations.

“Turkey’s geostrategic position in a volatile region has influenced tactics and doctrine,” explained Gareth Jennings, aviation desk editor at IHS Jane’s, the defense consultancy. “There’s particular emphasis on the air-to-air role, deriving largely from differences with Greece over unresolved sovereignty claims in the Aegean.”

Yet in recent years the ancient enemies have tried to improve business relations. Last month, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu even offered to help Greece with its financial crisis.

But despite their friendlier civilian relations, neither Athens nor Ankara can stomach backing down over the Aegean.

Grčka je uputila zvaničan zahtev Međunarodnom monetarnom fondu za dobijanje novog zajma, i to u trenutku kada su zvaničnici grčke vlade u više navrata ponovili da će u Atini početi pregovori sa kreditorima o odobravanju 86 milijardi evra vrednog paketa pomoći Grčkoj.


"Želeli bi da vas obavestimo da tražimo novi zajam od Medjunarodnog monetarnog fonda", napisao je juče ministar finansija Grčke Euklid Cakalotos direktorki MMF-a Kristini Lagard.

Predstavnici evropskih kreditnih institucija su doputovali u Atinu radi pokretanja razgovora o trećem paketu pomoći Grčkoj, javio je ranije juče britanski javni servis Bi-Bi-Si.


Očekuje se da će se zvaničnici grčke vlade sastati sa predstavnicima evropskih kreditora, što će, kako navodi Bi-Bi-Si, predstavljati njihove prve pregovore na visokom nivou u Atini otkako je grčki premijer Aleksis Cipras u januaru imenovan za premijera.

Poseta delegacije evropskih institucija usledila je nakon što su poslanici grčkog parlamenta usvojili nove uslove kreditora, ali je i dalje nejasno da li će se predstavnici Medjunarodnog monetarnog fonda (MMF) pridružiti pregovorima o predloženom paketu pomoći Atini u vrednosti od 86 milijardi evra.

MMF želi da grčki teret duga bude smanjen na održiviji nivo, ali je takav predlog Fonda naišao na protivljenje evropskih partnera.

Grčki pregovorači će se, kako prenosi Bi-Bi-Si, sastati sa predstavnicima Evropske komisije, Evropske centralne banke i Evropskog stabilizacionog mehanizma (ESM), a procene su da će pregovori o paketu pomoći trajati mesec dana.

Stroga kontrola kapitala, uvedena u Grčkoj krajem juna, ostaje na snazi radi sprečavanja odliva sredstava iz oslabljenih grčkih banaka, podseća britanski javni servis.

Izvor: Blic

не видех, нисам пратио тему... па ме запањи ово кад налетех на интервју

"Učio sam ceo život, da boluje, da volim,
Došlo je vreme, da naučim priznajem
Istrajavam, istrajavam, život moj ostrvo,
Ti od mene daleko...

Istrajavam!"

Greece rocked by reports of secret plan to raid banks for drachma return

Opposition demands answers after covert proposals attributed to Yanis Varoufakis and fellow ex-minister highlight deep split in Syriza party

The guardian
Sunday 26 July 2015 19.39 BST
Last modified on Monday 27 July 2015 00.02 BST

Some members of Greece’s leftist-led government wanted to raid central bank reserves and hack taxpayer accounts to prepare a return to the drachma, according to reports that highlighted the chaos in the ruling Syriza party.

It is not clear how seriously the government considered the plans, attributed to former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis and ex-finance minister Yanis Varoufakis. Both ministers were sacked this month. However, the revelations have been seized on by opposition parties who are demanding an explanation.

The reports on Sunday came at the end of a week of fevered speculation over what Syriza hardliners had in mind as an alternative to the tough bailout terms Tsipras has reluctantly accepted to keep Greece in the eurozone.

About a quarter of the party’s 149 MPs rebelled over proposals to pass sweeping austerity measures in exchange for up to €86bn (£60bn) in fresh loans. Tsipras has been struggling to hold the party together.

In an interview with Sunday’s edition of the RealNews daily, Lafazanis said he had urged the government to tap the reserves of the Bank of Greece in defiance of the European Central Bank.

Lafazanis, the leader of a hardline Syriza faction that has argued for a return to the drachma, said the move would have allowed pensions and public sector wages to be paid if Greece were forced out of the euro.


“The main reason for that was for the Greek economy and Greek people to survive, which is the utmost duty every government has under the constitution,” he said.

In a separate report in the conservative Kathimerini newspaper, Varoufakis was quoted as saying that a small team in Syriza had prepared plans to secretly copy online tax codes. It said the “plan B” was devised to allow the government to introduce a parallel payment system if the banks were closed down.

In remarks which the newspaper said were made at an investors’ conference on 16 July, Varoufakis said passwords used by Greeks to access their online tax accounts were to have been duplicated secretly and used to issue new PIN numbers for every taxpayer to be used in transactions with the state.

“This would have created a parallel banking system, which would have given us some breathing space, while the banks would have been shut due to the ECB’s aggressive policy,” Varoufakis was quoted as saying.

Varoufakis stood down this month to facilitate bailout talks. He has been a strident opponent of the deal ever since.

Under the secret plan, which the report said was devised before Tsipras was elected in January, transactions through the parallel system would have been nominated in euros but could easily change into drachmas overnight.

Varoufakis told the Daily Telegraph that the quotes were accurate but some reports in the Greek press had been twisted, making it look as if he had been plotting a return to the drachma from the start.

“The context of all this is that they want to present me as a rogue finance minister and have me indicted for treason. It is all part of an attempt to annul the first five months of this government and put it in the dustbin of history,” he said.

The deputy finance minister Dimitris Mardas denied the government had ever discussed plans to take Greece out of the euro. “I have repeatedly said that such discussions have never taken place at a government policy level,” he told SKAI television.

Varoufakis reveals cloak and dagger 'Plan B' for Greece, awaits treason charges


Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis claims he was authorised by Alexis Tsipras to look into a parallel payment system

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,the telegraph
5:28PM BST 26 Jul 2015

A secret cell at the Greek finance ministry hacked into the government computers and drew up elaborate plans for a system of parallel payments that could be switched from euros to the drachma at the "flick of a button" .

The revelations have caused a political storm in Greece and confirm just how close the country came to drastic measures before premier Alexis Tsipras gave in to demands from Europe's creditor powers, acknowledging that his own cabinet would not support such a dangerous confrontation.

Yanis Varoufakis, the former finance minister, told a group of investors in London that a five-man team under his control had been working for months on a contingency plan to create euro liquidity if the European Central Bank cut off emergency funding to the Greek financial system, as it in fact did after talks broke down and Syriza called a referendum.

The transcripts were leaked to the Greek newspaper Kathimerini. The telephone call took place a week after he stepped down as finance minister.

"The prime minister, before we won the election in January, had given me the green light to come up with a Plan B. And I assembled a very able team, a small team as it had to be because that had to be kept completely under wraps for obvious reasons," he said.

Mr Varoufakis recruited a technology specialist from Columbia University to help handle the logistics. Faced with a wall of obstacles, the expert broke into the software systems of the tax office - then under the control of the EU-IMF 'Troika' - in order to obtain the reserve accounts and file numbers of every taxpayer. "We decided to hack into my ministry’s own software programme," he said.

The revelations were made to a group of sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and life insurers - many from Asia - hosted as part of a "Greek day" on July 16 by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF).

Mr Varoufakis told the Telegraph that the quotes were accurate but some reports in the Greek press had been twisted, making it look as if he had been plotting a return to the drachma from the start.

"The context of all this is that they want to present me as a rogue finance minister, and have me indicted for treason. It is all part of an attempt to annul the first five months of this government and put it in the dustbin of history," he said.

"It totally distorts my purpose for wanting parallel liquidity. I have always been completely against dismantling the euro because we never know what dark forces that might unleash in Europe," he said.

The goal of the computer hacking was to enable the finance ministry to make digital transfers at "the touch of a button". The payments would be 'IOUs' based on an experiment by California after the Lehman crisis.

A parallel banking system of this kind would allow the government to create euro liquidity and circumvent what Syriza called "financial strangulation" by the ECB.

"This was very well developed. Very soon we could have extended it, using apps on smartphones, and it could become a functioning parallel system. Of course this would be euro denominated but at the drop of a hat it could be converted to a new drachma,” he said.

Mr Varoufakis claimed the cloak and dagger methods were necessary since the Troika had taken charge of the public revenue office within the finance ministry. "It’s like the Inland Revenue in the UK being controlled by Brussels. I am sure as you are hearing these words your hair is standing on end,” he said in the leaked transcripts.

Mr Varoufakis said any request for permission would have tipped off the Troika immediately that he was planning a counter-attack. He was ready to activate the mechanism the moment he received a "green light" from the prime minister, but the permission never came.

"I always told Tsipras that it will not be plain sailing but this is the price you have to pay for liberty," he told the Telegraph.

"But when the time came he realised that it was just too difficult. I don't know when he reached that decision. I only learned explicitly on the night of the referendum, and that is why I offered to resign," he said. Mr Varoufakis wanted to seize on the momentum of a landslide victory in the vote but was overruled.

He insisted that his purpose has always been to go on the legal and financial offensive within the eurozone - placing the eurozone creditors in a position where they would be acting outside EU treaty law if they forced Grexit - but nevertheless suggested Syriza did have a mandate to contemplate more radical steps if all else failed.

"I think the Greek people had authorised us to pursue energetically and vigorously that negotiation to the point of saying that if we can’t have a viable agreement, then we should consider getting out," he said in the tape.

"Schauble believes that the eurozone is not sustainable as it is. He believes there has to be some fiscal transfers, some degree of political union. He believes that for that political union to work without federation, without the legitimacy that a properly elected federal parliament can render, can bestow upon an executive, it will have to be done in a very disciplinary way,"

"And he said explicitly to me that a Grexit is going to equip him with sufficient terrorising power in order to impose upon the French, that which Paris has been resisting: a degree of transfer of budget making powers from Paris to Brussels."

Mr Varoufakis told the Telegraph that the Mr Schauble has made up his mind that Greece must be ejected from the euro, and is merely biding his time, knowing that the latest bail-out plan is doomed to failure.

"Everybody knows the International Monetary Fund does not want to take part in a new programme but Schauble is insisting that it does as a condition for new loans. I have a strong suspicion that there will be no deal on August 20," he said.

He said the EU authorities may have to dip further into the European Commission's stabilisation fund (EFSM), drawing Britain deeper into the controversy since it is a contributor. By the end of the year it will be clear that tax revenues are falling badly short of targets - he said - and the Greek public ratio will be shooting up towards 210pc of GDP.

"Schauble will then say it is yet another failure. He is just stringing us along. He has not given up his plan to push Greece out of the euro," he said.

 

Evropska centralna banka (ECB) je odobrila predlog Grčke za ponovno otvaranje berze u toj zemlji, izjavila je danas portparolka Atinske berze.

"Grčko ministarstvo finansija će objaviti dekret o vremenskom periodu otvaranja berze i takođe će doneti odluku o eventualnim trgovinskim ograničenjima", izjavila je portparolka, čije ime agencije ne navode.

Predstavnici centralne banke Grčke, Evropske centralne banke i grčkog ministarstva finansija nisu bili dostupni za komentar.
 
Trgovanje na Atinskoj berzi obustavljeno od 29. juna, kada je uvedena kontrola kapitala u Grčkoj.

Izvor: Blic