Rusija: Kad se kolo sreće okrene

Izvor: Tanjug

Ruska rublja pala je početkom ove godine 13 odsto u odnosu na američki dolar i zvanična Moskva se uz veliki napor trudi da spreči valutnu krizu.

Ta kriza mogla bi da se pretvori u pravu ekonomsku katastrofu.

Veliki problem predstavlja i to što ruska vlada, banke i kompanije imaju dug od skoro 678 milijardi dolara, pri čemu oko 130 milijardi dolara moraju da vrate već do kraja ove godine, rečeno je Tanjugu u FX Lideru.

Nakon pada tokom decembra prošle godine, od preko 50 odsto u odnosu na dolar, ruska rublja je posle intervencije Centralne banke Rusije uspela da nadoknadi prethodni pad, ali je početkom 2015. godine ponovo pala 13 odsto.

Pre samo godinu dana ruska ekonomija ostvarivala je rast od 1,5 odsto, a predsednik Vladimir Putin spremao se da organizuje zimsku olimpijadu u Sočiju. Danas, godinu dana kasnije, zvanična Moskva se uz veliki napor trudi da spreči valutnu krizu koja bi mogla da se pretvori u pravu ekonomsku katastrofu.

Veliki broj zapadnih kompanija koje posluju u Rusiji takođe su ugrožene, a među najviše pogođenim su Ford, Folksvagen, Karlsberg, Adidas, Mek Donalds, Simens, ali i veliki broj evropskih banaka.

Na kraju prošle godine predsednik Putin naznačio je kao osnovni razlog finansijske krize u ovoj zemlji kolaps cene nafte na svetskom tržištu i sankcije koje su zapadne zemlje uvele Rusiji.

Samo u toku prošle godine ruska rublja izgubila je 45 odsto svoje vrednosti u odnosu na dolar i čak se u jednom momentu spustila na rekordno nizak nivo. Prema podacima Bloomberga, ruska nacionalna valuta imala je najgore rezultate tokom 2014. godine od svih 170 svetskih valuta.

Ciljna inflacija, koju je postavila Centralna banka Rusije, bila je pet odsto za prošlu godinu, ali je u realnosti ona dostigla 9,4 i ima tendenciju daljeg rasta. Polovinom decembra 2014. godine Centralna banka Rusije povećala je referentnu kamatnu stopu sa 10,5 na 17 odsto, što je najveći pojedinačni rast od kada je zemlja bankrotirala 1998. godine.

MMF očekuje da će zbog svega što se prošle godine dogodilo, BDP Rusije tokom poslednjeg kvartala 2014. i pored prognoziranog rasta od 0,2 odsto biti skoro u potpunosti izbrisan.

Ruski zvaničnici su procenili da bi tokom 2015. godine aktivnost ekonomije mogla da opadne i do pet odsto, ukoliko cena sirove nafte ostane ispod 60 dolara po barelu, a već u januaru ove godine, cena "crnog zlata" potonula je ispod 50 dolara po barelu, što je najniži nivo u poslednjih pet godina.

Ovaj pad cene naročito je pogodio ekonomiju Rusije, jer polovina nacionalnog dohotka dolazi upravo od izvoza nafte i gasa. Očekuje se da će i očekivani budžetski deficit biti oko dva odsto upravo u zavisnosti od cene nafte.

Rast deficita doveo je do toga da Putin naredi smanjenje javnih troškova za pet procenata. Resori odbrane i nacionalne bezbednosti jedina su ministarstva koja će biti izuzeta od ovog smanjenja.

Devizne rezerve koje Rusija ima u stranim valutama tokom prošle godine pale su na 416 milijardi dolara što je oko 21 milijardu manje u odnosu na prethodnu godinu.

Ruska vlada, banke i kompanije imaju dug od skoro 678 milijardi dolara, od kojih oko 130 milijardi dolara mora biti vraćeno već do kraja ove godine, navedeno je u analizi FX Lidera.

FX Lider je Forex platforma u Srbiji na kojoj može da se trguje valutnim derivatima, zlatom, sirovom naftom i indeksima na svetskim berzima.

Sto si toliko ostrasccen? Imas vec teme (bar dve) o propasti ruske ekonomije i padu rublje 

Nisam već mi je zanimljivo da je tanjug ovo napisao...koje?da premestim pa neka lokuju...

Russia Abandons PetroDollar By Opening Reserve Fund

By Colin Chilcoat

Posted on Thu, 15 January 2015 22:55

2015 has not been good to Russia; the spread between Brent and WTI is gone in anticipation of US exports and both benchmarks have flirted with sub $45 prices. A hostage to such prices, the ruble has yet to begin its turnaround and the state’s finances are in extreme disarray. President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings remain sky-high, but his country has not faced such difficult times since he took office more than 15 years ago.

Since the turn of the new year the ruble has fallen over 13 percent and Russia’s central bank and finance department are running out of options – to date, policy makers have hiked interest rates to their highest level since the 1998 Russian financial crisis and embarked on a 1 trillion-ruble ($15 billion) bank recapitalization plan to little effect. Their latest, and most dramatic, plan is to abandon the dollar – at least somewhat.


In late December, the Kremlin ordered five large state-owned exporters – including oil and gas giants Rosneft and Gazprom – to sell their foreign currency reserves. Specifically, the companies must bring their foreign reserves to October levels by the beginning of March. To comply, the exporters may have to sell a combined $1 billion per day until March. Private companies have not yet been hit by these soft capital controls, but have instead been advised to manage their foreign exchange maneuvers responsibly.

More recently, the Kremlin announced it will open its $88 billion sovereign wealth fund and flip it for rubles. The plan will see Russia convert as much as $8 billion to rubles (~500 billion) over a two-month span and place them in deposits for banks. Overall, the move will provide the Russian economy with some much needed liquidity and could speed up the healing if oil were to rebound, but it sends the wrong signals to investors and Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukaev believes the country’s credit rating will soon be marked below investment grade.

In any case, the move does little for the country’s ailing oil industry. The domestic market is projected to shrink amid the economic slowdown, and competition for market share abroad is increasingly competitive. Production forecasts are no rosier and the EIA predicts Russian crude production growth will be among the worst performers in both 2015 and 2016 – contrasted by continued growth in North America. Russia’s gas industry has fared no better. Gazprom’s 2014 output was historically awful and LNG is ever more a counter to the country’s pipeline politics.



While Russia likely envisioned abandoning its dollars under far better circumstances, the news is just as worrying for the United States and its dollar hegemony. Along with Russia, energy exporters worldwide are pulling their petrodollars out of world financial markets and other USD-denominated assets in favor of greater, and certainly necessary, spending domestically. In the past, these dollars have given life to the loan market and helped fund debt among energy importers, contributing to overall growth.

PetrodollarExports

Source: Reuters

Petrodollar exports – otherwise known as petrodollar recycling – were negative in 2014 for the first time in nearly two decades. The result is falling global market liquidity, record low US Treasury rates, and higher borrowing costs for everyone – a tough pill to swallow for energy producers if oil prices remain low. The US dollar remains the global reserve currency for now, but the fact remains that nations are increasingly transacting on their own terms, and often times without the USD.

By Colin Chilcoat of Oilprice.com

 

Ocekivano...
Bilo je samo pitanje dana kad ce zapad resiti da sasece Rusiju koja se suvise oslanjala na pare sa tog istog zapada. Jbge, investira Rusija preko Abramovica u premijer ligu koja Englezima donosi lepe pare, a ne mogu da nadju menadzment koji ce novog Maza da isporuce bez punog dzaka delova, posto svaki njihov kamion moras prvo da popravljas posto ga kupis ganc novog.
Sad jbge ... nuzda zakon menja, mozda sve ovo bude i dobro za Ruse, u smislu nekog otreznjenja da ne moze jedna velesila da se finansira kao neka zemlja u razvoju pukim izvozom sirovina.

Oni ce da je lome dok Rusija ne bude saterana u cosak.  Oni koliko ja znam su nesto opet petljali sa Kubom, ali vidi ti sad Amere, otvorise svoje granice za Kubu posle toliko godina. 

Rusi jedino sa Kinom imaju neke shanse nesto da urade, ali to je sve jebao char vajdu.  Amerima se isplati da izbije treci svetski jer tako ne duguju onda nikom nista, jer sva valuta pada u vodu, tako je bilo tokom i Prvog i Drugog Svetskog.

Nisu otvorili nista...za ekonomiju embargo i dalje vazi...

Lukashenko issues tough warning to Moscow


Associated Press: 29. January 2015


MINSK, Belarus (AP) — New cracks emerged Thursday in a Russia-led economic alliance, with the president of Belarus warning that his nation may opt out of it.
Alexander Lukashenko also sternly warned Moscow Thursday that his nation of 10 million will never be part of the "Russian world," a term coined by the Kremlin that reflects its hopes to pull ex-Soviet nations closer into its orbit.
"Those who think that the Belarusian land is part as what they call the Russian world, almost part of Russia, forget about it!" Lukashenko said. "Belarus is a modern and independent state."

Lukashenko, who has been at the helm since 1994, has relied on Russia's economic subsidies and political support but bristled at Moscow's attempts to expand its control over Belarusian assets.
He was dubbed "Europe's last dictator" in the West for his relentless crackdown on the opposition and free media, but Belarus' relations with the United States and the European Union have warmed recently as Minsk played host to crucial Ukrainian peace talks.
Lukashenko said he wants to normalize ties with Western nations and issued a clear warning to Moscow that it shouldn't expect Belarus to follow suit in defying the West.

In another signal of growing frictions between the two allies, Lukashenko, who plans to seek another term in elections this year, said he warned Moscow that he wouldn't step down.
"As for sending me into retirement, I harshly told them in the Kremlin that they won't succeed in bending me," he said.

Last month, he accused Moscow of damaging Belarus' economic interests with moves to restrict exports to Russia, which he said violated the rules of the Eurasian Economic Union, a grouping that comprises Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.
On Thursday, Lukashenko warned that if the agreements on forming the alliance aren't observed, "we reserve the right to leave the union."
Belarus, sandwiched between Russia and European Union members Poland and Lithuania, has profited handsomely from Moscow's ban on imports of EU food in retaliation to Western sanctions against Russia by boosting imports of food from the EU nations and reselling the food to Russia.

The Russian authorities have retaliated by restricting imports of Belarus' own milk and meat and banning transit of Belarusian food bound for Kazakhstan through its territory on suspicion that much of it ended up in Russia.