India - Next superpower




Poverty and corruption is still rampant in India, but the world’s largest democracy is poised to rise to superpower status.

A year ago, India’s future looked bleak. Anemic economic growth, inflationary fears, and a lack of credible leadership in New Delhi had fostered uncertainty and pessimism. That changed dramatically when Narendra Modi became Prime Minister on the promise of reforming India’s government and jumpstarting its floundering economy.

On Sunday, President Obama begins a three-day visit to India. As he meets with Modi to cement America’s relations with India, all eyes will be on the world’s largest democracy’s potential and what it could mean for investors worldwide. Most signs point to a bright future and to the possibility that India could well become a superpower.




There are challenges, of course. The reforms that Modi has initiated are still in early stages. Political, cultural, and macroeconomic factors could slow down or derail progress; government corruption could be harder to eradicate than imagined, and oversized economic ambitions could crash against the hard reality of poor infrastructure and widespread poverty. At the same time, rising tension with its nuclear neighbor Pakistan and the growing military might of China could require India to spend heavily on defense, create internal strife between Hindus and Muslims, and distract from other priorities.


But despite all this, the promise of a brighter future for India still holds firm. There are three reasons for this:

The first is economic. Modi’s initiatives aimed at revamping India’s restrictive business regulations and creating a real free market seem to be working. Even though GDP growth in the third quarter of 2014 slowed slightly from the summer to 5.3%, it was still much higher than that of the last several years. India’s $1.9 trillion economy is projected to expand by 6.4% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, and the country has already outpaced Japan as the world’s third largest economy in terms of purchasing price parity, a measure that adjusts for price differences between economies, according to the World Bank.

In addition, falling oil prices have reduced the risk of inflation and will enable the country to cut its costly fuel subsidies. Every a $10-a-barrel decline could increase GDP by 0.1%, lower inflation by 0.5%, and narrow the current account deficit, Nomura economists led by Sonal Varma wrote in an October report. Further bolstering the economy is the billions of dollars in increased foreign investments, including $33 billion from private and public sources in Japan, aided by the raising of investment caps by the government and a stable interest rate environment.

The second part of Modi’s plan is to improve India’s national infrastructure. This includes a proposed increase in infrastructure spending of $800 billion to reach targeted economic growth of 7% as well as enabling banks to buy infrastructure bonds to spur trading activity in the debt markets. Late last year, Modi also secured a $20 billion infrastructure investment from China. Collectively, these initiatives could enable India to upgrade its overtaxed transport system, bring stable water supply and electricity to more areas, and expand the use of technology throughout the country.




But the most important aspect of India’s infrastructure is its human capital. What makes India’s population so valuable is its large pool of young workers — 65% of India’s population is 35 or under, giving the country a strong competitive edge in the coming decades.

To realize the potential of this human capital, the government has launched several initiatives aimed at improving education, retraining rural workers for skilled jobs in other sectors, providing bank accounts to all Indians to teach personal financial planning, offering free life insurance, encouraging the wider use of computers and the Internet, and generally modernizing the workforce for the big jobs boom coming up in the fast-growing healthcare, information technology, telecom, and retail sectors.

The final factor that could position India as a superpower is its geopolitical advantage. Since his election, Modi has made a concerted effort to strengthen ties with Russia, Japan, and the U.S. For each of them, India is a valuable trading partner with a vast consumer base and labor pool waiting to be tapped. But even more significant is the strategic importance of its alliance with all those nations.

Reeling from Western economic sanctions and low oil prices, Russia needs India’s partnership more than ever to bolster its economic foothold in Asia and counter U.S. influence. Similarly, the U.S. would like to expand bilateral trade with India, which reached $95 billion in 2013, while also using the democratic nation to balance the power of China in the region. By extending the hand of friendship to all of them, Modi is being diplomatic; but he is also keeping his options open to forge partnerships that will maximize the benefit to India, both financially and politically.

India may not reach its desired destination in a straight line or in the timeframe that Modi has set for it, but odds are pretty good that it will become a leading player in the economic and geopolitical spheres fairly soon.

Sanjay Sanghoee is a business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, at hedge fund Ramius Capital, and has an MBA from Columbia Business School.


Izvor Fortune

The future of the world will be determined by India.
 




With 1.1 billion residents and the fastest growing free market economy, the world’s largest democracy is poised to dominate the world stage. Vinay Rai, one of India’s top businessmen and philanthropists, gives an insider’s view into his country’s dynamic transformation and meteoric rise. With the economy soaring at eight percent a year, India is a medical and pharmaceutical frontrunner, an R&D powerhouse, a rising manufacturing hub, and an upand- coming cultural trendsetter from fashion to film. Rai also explores what impact this stunning growth will have on the United States in terms of business development and foreign policy, especially regarding China, with which India shares a border. Think India is fascinating and essential reading for forward-thinking businesspeople and anyone who wants to understand India’s new muscle on the global stage.

India’s Rise to World’s Third Largest Economy Puts More Pressure on China to Perform




Op-Ed Commentary: Chris Devonshire-Ellis

With the recent news that India has just overtaken Japan to become the world’s third largest economy in PPP terms, China now faces increasing pressure to both hold onto its FDI performance, GDP growth, its  manufacturing competitiveness and maintain the domestic political mantra that the country is superior to that of its largest neighbour.

In terms of FDI, China’s rose last year by 5.3 percent, to a whopping US$117.6 billion, albeit at slower rates of increase than previously attained. But even that figure was eclipsed by the 5 largest economies in ASEAN, who achieved FDI inflows of US$128.4 billion. India’s, while smaller at some US$28 billion, still rose by 17 percent over the previous year – an increase over three times higher than that of China’s, and achieved during what was not an entirely satisfactory fiscal or political 12 months for the country. While it is true that the Indian performance comes from a lower economic base, there is some thought that the investment trends are now moving away from China and into other areas of emerging Asia – with ASEAN and India amongst them.

If so, there are some fundamental reasons for this. China has become considerably more expensive in terms of labour costs. It is now five times more expensive to hire a worker in Guangdong than it is in Mumbai. Coupled with that, China’s demographics point to it losing labour force over the coming years, while a much younger India is adding to its pool of available workers. Not only are China’s workers becoming more expensive, there are also less of them. It is that demographic that is now beginning to impact initially upon labour-intensive industries in China, but will rapidly filter down into smaller and medium size businesses with less cash flow to protect them against increasing production costs.





Foxconn, maker of numerous Apple products, are shifting production to Indonesia. Ford have bet their Asian vehicle strategy upon auto-manufacturing plants in Gujarat. Nearby Thailand, and not China, has been chosen by Volkswagen as their manufacturing base for auto sales into Asia. These decisions have been made despite regular comments about China’s infrastructure superiority protecting it from such leakage. Clearly the cost benefits of locating factories elsewhere, even with lower standards of infrastructure, are greater than investing that additional capacity in China. China has not been able to become the manufacturing hub of choice for Asia, let alone the world.

This is having an impact on where global CEOs see future production capacity moving. According to the 2013 Global Manufacturing Competitive Index issued by Deloitte, India currently ranks fourth globally. This report includes over 550 survey responses from CEOs around the world and provides their perspectives on the key drivers of manufacturing competitiveness for a country, a ranking of each nation’s current and future competitiveness, and a review of the public policies creating competitive advantages and disadvantages for key countries and regions around the world. The study also reveals that India will move up from fourth to second position over the next four years.

Meanwhile, even the Chinese Central Government’s desire to propel the majority of its citizens towards middle class consumer status at a rapid pace is beginning to face resistance. Dongguan, the so-called “factory of the world” has shelved, for the time being at least, any further minimum wage hikes as it strives to keep increasingly frustrated business owners competitive – and profitable. If not, they will – and many are – relocate to Vietnam.

The main attraction for many foreign investors now in China is the development of that same middle class consumer base. Currently standing at about 250 million, it is projected to reach 600 million by 2020, a staggering increase. Yet that projection also assumes that China will be able to hold onto its manufacturing base and service the domestic market domestically. That strategy is now starting to look less likely. Vietnam, expected to come into full China-ASEAN Free Trade Compliance by the end of next year, will be able to enjoy duty free exports to China on some 90 percent of all traded products. With Vietnamese wages far lower than China’s, and a lower corporate tax rate in the offing, China will struggle to compete with Vietnam within 18 months. Yet it needs to maintain manufacturing stability and foreign investment inflows at the same time. It’s a balancing act that is beginning to look a little out of kilter.

China stands to produce another 350 million middle class consumers, all wanting modern products, that will increasingly be sourced externally from China. Yet at the same time, fiscal tax revenues on customs duties will drop. That doesn’t really balance the books as far as I can see China sustaining its projected middle class growth. As its population ages, it will become more dependent upon raising taxes to cover health care costs. Yet in multinational trade, exactly the reverse is happening.

India, meanwhile, is a little behind in all this. Its development path is often erratic, and as a democracy it has lacked the one party, single minded drive that has propelled China along the past three decades. Its GDP growth rates have performed at a far wider range than China’s from a low of 3.5 percent last year, from 9.7 percent in 2010, and an expected 6.5 percent this year. That compares with a consistent China deliverable of between 7-8 percent per annum. But the warning signs for China are there. India is not just a home of increasing numbers of workers (expected to double to just under 1 billion by 2025) available at far lower wages than in China, but it also has an alluring domestic middle class – coincidentally the same size as China’s is today, at 250 million. That middle class also has extensive purchasing power and is increasing. International brands are now flocking to India to sell to the domestic market. Yet still, India tends to fall down on infrastructure. That however is changing – investment into infrastructure is racing ahead at close to 8 percent growth per annum – higher than the GDP rate.




When India’s infrastructure gap starts to close – and the signs are already there – it will take just a couple of reforms to kick start India as both the world’s manufacturing hub and its largest consumer market. Those are tax reform, which has been on the agenda for the past three years, with the intent to lower corporate income tax from the current 40 percent rate down to 30 percent, and further FDI reforms into the retail sectors, and especially in agriculture and e-commerce. In the latter especially, India has been able to provide a far more open and transparent market than that of China. With the Chinese government wanting to keep a handle on every possible currency movement out of the country, and as a result supervising the rise of its own online retailers, global online retail businesses such as Amazon and ebay, along with many other e-commerce businesses, have found the going in China very tough. In comparison, the Indian market is starting to open and giants such as Amazon are expecting huge dividends as a result. Put simply, India’s market is more open to foreign investment and participation than China’s.

If these Indian reforms continue to happen – and both political parties contesting the Indian elections currently underway are considered business friendly – then the rise of India may yet cause China some headaches. I will not be surprised if India’s growth in two years from now starts to outpace that of a China that just may have attempted to become too rich, too fast, amongst too many people, with worrying implications for future growth.

Chris Devonshire-Ellis is the Founding Partner of Dezan Shira & Associates – a specialist foreign direct investment practice providing corporate establishment, business advisory, tax advisory and compliance, accounting, payroll, due diligence and financial review services to multinationals investing in emerging Asia. Since its establishment in 1992, the firm has grown into one of Asia’s most versatile full-service consultancies with operational offices across China, Hong Kong, India, Singapore and Vietnam, in addition to alliances in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand, as well as liaison offices in Italy, Germany and the United States.

For further details or to contact the firm, please email asia@dezshira.com, visit www.dezshira.com, or download our brochure.

You can stay up to date with the latest business and investment trends across Asia by subscribing to Asia Briefing’s complimentary update service featuring news, commentary, guides, and multimedia resources.


Izvor CB

Мислим да ће ипак Кина уз Русију бити водећа светска сила за неких тридесетак година а можда и раније. . .

:ballbounce:

Jos uvek im je stanovnistvo podeljeno na kaste.

Unspoken Story of Indian Holocaust: UK Remains Silent About Its Atrocities







While London has rushed to point the accusing finger at Serbs for the Srebrenica tragedy, the British have apparently forgotten their own shameful history of the genocide of the people of India, Rakesh Krishnan Simha told Sputnik.
Flames from an explosion light up the Belgrade skyline near a power station after NATO cruise missiles and warplanes attacked Yugoslavia late Wednesday, March 24, 1999
© AP PHOTO/ DIMITRI MESSINIS
The Yugoslav Wars: Story of Serbian Genocide Still Remains Untold
While British policy makers are expressing their "righteous" anger over Russia's decision to veto their resolution on the Srebrenica "genocide" of 1995 discussed by the UN Security Council earlier this month, London should obviously look in the mirror and recall its own colonial past, New Zealand-based journalist and foreign affairs analyst Rakesh Krishnan Simha told Sputnik.
There is no need to delve deep into history, the analyst noted, referring to the infamous Bengal Famine of 1943-44 that can be classified as the greatest disaster in the subcontinent in the 20th century.

Citing Australian biochemist Dr. Gideon Polya, Rakesh Krishnan Simha underscored that the Bengal Famine was a "manmade holocaust" directly caused by UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill's policies.

"Bengal had a bountiful harvest in 1942, but the British started diverting vast quantities of food grain from India to Britain, contributing to a massive food shortage in the areas comprising present-day West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar and Bangladesh," the foreign affairs analyst narrated in his article "Remembering India's Forgotten Holocaust" in 2014.

Just in a year, the manmade famine had claimed the lives of over 3 million Indians.



The Famine in India: Natives Waiting for Relief at Bangalore
© WIKIPEDIA/ ADAM63
The Famine in India: Natives Waiting for Relief at Bangalore
"Winston Churchill was just the last of the many murderous despots who presided over India's fate during the over 200 years of British rule. He said, "I hate Indians. They are beastly people with a beastly religion"," Rakesh Krishnan Simha told Sputnik.

Can We Classify the Bengal Famine as Genocide?

British Moazzam Begg leaves Belmarsh Prison in south London, after his release, Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2014
© AP PHOTO/ LEFTERIS PITARAKIS
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Can we classify the Bengal Famine as genocide? Genocide is a systematic killing of a people in great numbers and Churchill intentionally, and with open malice towards Indians, diverted grain from India to Europe, the analyst pointed out. He added that even when desperate pleas came from the administration in Bengal, Churchill refused to dispatch emergency food supplies. The UK prime minister even went so far as to blame Indians for the famine, saying that they "breed like rabbits."
"When the British representatives in India asked Churchill to stop diverting Indian food grains to Europe and to supply India with wheat from Australia, he replied: "If there is famine in India, then why is Gandhi still alive?"" the analyst remarked bitterly.

The Bengal Famine happened despite India being a food-surplus country with a bumper harvest that year, he stressed. And that had not been the first time when the British rulers facilitated food shortages in India.




Photograph of a South India family in 1878 by W.W. Hooper
© WIKIPEDIA/ W.W.HOOPER. 1878
Photograph of a South India family in 1878 by W.W. Hooper
Rakesh Krishnan Simha stressed that during over 200 years of British rule, India saw at least two dozen major famines, which collectively killed 60 million people. The journalist added that the figure is based on numbers collated by British officials and economists and in reality it is significantly higher.

Smoke rises from the Syrian city of Kobani, following an airstrike by the US led coalition, seen from a hilltop outside Suruc, on the Turkey-Syria border Monday, Nov. 17, 2014.
© AP PHOTO/ VADIM GHIRDA
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The analyst pointed out that during the 1877 famine in India, the only acquire to get some food was to work in the British labor camps. Within those camps, starving Indians received only 16 ounces of rice per day — less than the Jewish inmates of Buchenwald, the Nazi concentration camp of the Second World War.
One would say that India had faced famines even before the British colonial rule. However, "in the past 2000 years of Indian history, there were very few famine deaths because the Indian rulers ensured the well-being of the people through emergency food supplies and field kitchens," the journalist underscored.

India's Forgotten Holocaust

The history of manmade famines in India under the British rule can be obviously compared to the Jewish Holocaust of the Second World War, according to Rakesh Krishnan Simha.

"Hitler's hatred for Jews led to the Holocaust and Britain's malice towards Indians caused the deaths of at least 60 million Indians, including three million people during the Bengal Famine. Proportionately, the Bengal Famine was a holocaust on a bigger scale than the Jewish Holocaust. It took Hitler 12 years to murder 6 million Jews, but the British starved at least 3 million Indians to death in a 15 month period from 1943 to 1944. Indian estimates put the toll at 7 million," the journalist told Sputnik.

Queen Elizabeth II
© AP PHOTO/ JON FURNISS/INVISION
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Rakesh Krishnan Simha pointed out that Hitler wanted to destroy the entire Jewish population of Europe because of race and religious reasons; furthermore, Hitler saw Jews as competitors in the German economy.
"Hitler also wanted to create Lebensraum in Europe for pure Germans. If you look at the history of English colonialism, they have created their own versions of Lebensraum in Canada, the US, Australia and New Zealand after the genocide of native populations," the analyst underscored.

"They [the British] may have wanted to do the same in India. But the British couldn't replicate armed genocide in India because Indians put up a ferocious counter attack and defeated the British in several wars. So the British may have decided to systematically eradicate Indians through famines. In fact, Churchill's scorched earth policy was intended to enfeeble the Indian population so the Japanese-armed Indian National Army which was planning to liberate India from the east would not find able bodied men in Bengal," he elaborated.

Why Does the Story of the Indian Genocide Remain Unspoken?

So, why does the story of the Indian genocide still remain unspoken? Why does the West that has recently rushed to blame Serbs for "genocide" of Bosnian Muslims remains suspiciously silent about its own hideous atrocities?

"First up, why would the US, UK, Spain or France admit at all to genocides they have committed? It is precisely because the scale of their own crimes is so staggering that they quickly latch on to other countries' internal problems. For instance, after an alleged 100,000 East Timorese were killed by the Indonesians, the West suddenly adopted the role of savior, conscience keeper and protector. It then invaded East Timor and illegally made it an independent country. It did the same in Kosovo," Rakesh Krishnan Simha elaborated.

CIA Headquarters
© REUTERS/ LARRY DOWNING
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"The UK and British immigrants in America wiped out Native Indians by the tens of millions. In Africa, the British massacred Kenyans," he added.
According to the journalist, considering the scale of the atrocities, the international community should conduct an official investigation into the Indian genocide.

"If the US Congress can condemn the Turkish genocide of Armenians a 100 years ago, then they can also censure Britain for even bigger holocausts in India. For this to happen, private Indian individuals must come forward to demand apology and reparations. There are a number of Indians who remember the holocaust and were affected by it," the analyst pointed out.

Sunet at canon point, Diego Garcia
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And there is a precedent, he stressed: "Kenya has asked Britain for an apology, and the British have rendered one."
However, there are a number of obstacles in the way of restoring justice. First of all it is not in the British interests to recognize such a hideous crime. Furthermore, the Indian elite have already established close ties with the British nobilities. Many of them have their children studying in American and British colleges, or have business connections, or have family living in Britain, Rakesh Krishnan Simha noted. Maybe that is why most Indians have no memory of these holocausts because they are not taught in Indian schools, the foreign affairs analyst emphasized.



Izvor Sputnik

As India Turns 68, Here's What You Should Know About The Security Blanket That Envelopes The Nation


Indiatimes




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An extraordinary seven-layer security cover will be thrown over the capital from Friday night with the security agencies reporting a threefold increase in threat perception for the 69th Independence Day over last year. There will be an armed policeman at every 40 metres on Saturday.
PM Modi may not speak from the bulletproof enclosure at Red Fort
PM Modi
ibtimes.com


Like he did last year, the Prime Minister may turn down the security agencies' request to address the audience from the bulletproof enclosure at Red Fort, an officer familiar with the security arrangements said. This is a major concern for R&AW and IB, the two agencies that have to secure his vicinity. Last year, the PM had shocked the officers in charge of security by stepping out of the enclosure.
The seven layered security cover
While there will be six layers of security around Red Fort, an additional layer with confidential and detailed "sub-layers" will be in place for the PM. In all, about 30,000 personnel will be deployed on the ground for I-Day. Delhi Police will form the sixth and outermost layer, followed by paramilitary forces in the fifth. The fourth ring will have plainclothes staff while the third will have trained commandos from SWAT and other teams. Intelligence wing sleuths and frisking teams will form the second ring and the NSG (National Security Guards) will secure the first ring.
security
Reuters
The PM will have additional SPG (Special Protection Group) cover supported by personnel and other resources from the intelligence agencies. Four drones will be deployed in central Delhi to keep a watch and helicopters will patrol the entire route. There will be 1,400 cameras at strategic locations and no vehicle will be allowed to come within a 1km radius of the PM. The number of cameras installed around Red Fort has also been increased from 200 last year to 265 this time. There will be 600 cameras on the PM's route to the fort.
PM Modi
AFP
Roads will be closed 20 minutes before the PM's convoy passes while airspace will be closed from 45 minutes before his convoy starts to 15 minutes after it returns. An air-defence system will be in place around Red Fort covering a radius of 2km. A team of 30 officers will watch the PM's route from a separate control room. Sharpshooters and spotters will be positioned on about 360 buildings along the entire route from 7 Race Course Road to Red Fort. NSG commandos will be present atop buildings facing the fort when the PM delivers his speech on the podium.
security
AFP
Shoot-at-sight orders will be issued for suspicious people within 3 km of the cordoned-off area. Altogether, the area within an 8km radius of Red Fort will be sanitized and put under surveillance. All borders will be sealed at 12am and opened only at 2pm, and no inter-state buses will be allowed to run from 12am on Friday.
security
AFP
"Commandos specialized in hostage situations and air attacks will be kept in reserve at strategic points. Anti-aircraft guns and weapons will also be kept ready along with mobile quick-response teams, Delhi Police's SWAT team and bomb-disposal and dog squads," an officer said, adding, "The identities of people living around Red Fort will be verified and the area sanitized by Thursday night."
Lashker-e-Taiba plans to hijack or blow up an Air India flight
The possibility of a renewed attempt by Pakistan-sponsored terror groups to foment trouble around Independence Day by exploiting the resentment over alleged discrimination of Muslims by the judiciary in the wake of execution of 1993 blasts convict Yakub Memon has led the Centre to issue a detailed advisory to all states and Union territories for heightened surveillance.
air india
opinion-maker.net
The seven-page advisory, though part of a standard pre-August 15 security drill followed since the 1980s, is different in that it mentions specific security threats including a Lashker-e-Taiba (LeT) plan to hijack or blow up an Air India flight on the Kabul-Delhi-Kabul sector and al-Qaida's designs to hit Indian naval facilities including the Karwar naval base (INS Kadamba), the Southern Naval Command in Kochi (INS Venduruthy) and Mumbai-based Western Naval Command.
"Independence Day function ... provides an attractive target for various militant, terrorist outfits ... and rabid communal elements due to high publicity value and concentrated presence of dignitaries," the advisory said adding that the heightened threat scenario in the wake of the recent Gurdaspur attack called for special attention to security arrangements. A key input mentioned in the August 7 advisory addressed to state chief secretaries and DGPs, pointed to al-Qaida's plans to target BJP offices, apart from commercial, aviation, tourist and railway facilities.
Popular food joints also under threat
The I-Day alert also flagged the threat to popular food joints, cafeteria and other places frequented by foreign nationals and sought deployment of trained "watchers" there to track any suspicious activity. The Independence Day alert cites the continuous flow of intelligence inputs regarding specific threat of terror attacks by LeT, Jaish-e-Mohammad and even al-Qaida. For example, an April 8 input said a group of 8-10 LeT terrorist/suicide bombers would enter India via sea-route from Karachi or through J&K, to carry out an attack on a railway station or a hotel.
A January input talked of possible strikes against the ruling coalition or its partners, while another uncorroborated piece of intelligence pointed to plans by Pakistani's ISI to engineer hijack or bomb attack on Air India flights connecting Kabul, since these carry senior government officials. Significantly, the advisory mentions an LeT plot to target Mumbai or Gujarat around September or October, while a March alert speaks of possible fidayeen attacks in Delhi and J&K. It also warns of attempts by Sikh terrorists to revive militancy in Punjab with ISI support. This may include plans to infiltrate men and material across the border using para-gliders, with LeT arranging the logistics for assembly of the para-gliders and their launch into India.
In view of the terror threats, the security agencies have asked the forces and state police to maintain "strict access control and anti-sabotage checks" besides intensifying patrolling and keeping strict vigil at railway stations and tracks, bus stands, airports and entry points.
(With inputs from The Times of India)

 

E ovako vas gledaju ovi emigranti...

a tebe ? jel te gleda bar neko ?