можда и са разлогом 
баш тако,...некако 
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New Solar Cycle Prediction

May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.
"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

Right: A solar flare observed in Dec. 2006 by NOAA's GOES-13 satellite.


It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression.
"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."

The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare--electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion in damage.


Above: This plot of sunspot numbers shows the measured peak of the last solar cycle in blue and the predicted peak of the next solar cycle in red. Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center. [more]

The latest forecast revises an earlier prediction issued in 2007. At that time, a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models gave different answers, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct.

"It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."

Researchers have known about the solar cycle since the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-year period. At first glance, it looks like a regular pattern, but predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome. Cycles vary in length from about 9 to 14 years. Some peaks are high, others low. The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch out much longer. In the 17th century the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum that still baffles scientists.


Above: Yearly-averaged sunspot numbers from 1610 to 2008. Researchers believe upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will be similar to the cycle that peaked in 1928, marked by a red arrow. Credit: NASA/MSFC

Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.

"In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted in 2007."

In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show timorous signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun’s equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's new, almost unanimous forecast.

According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that's good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth's poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.
Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast.

"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/

Pa, u nekoj burekdzinici, ili u vise njih.

odoh sad pravo u prodavnicu da agregat kupim

Timovi naucnika sa Tasacusetsacusectsa,tim naucnika iz Spanije,Tim Tvedskih naucnika,Grupa Finskih istrazivaca,
Udruzenje Nemackih astronaucnika-svi zajedno ,dosli su do saznanja,da se zemlja okrece,tj.rotira oko svoje ose... 
Koliko puta sam citao do cega su dosli svi ti timovi i strucnjaci,pa da sam verovao,postao bih agorafobicar do sada...

Svima se veruje,i svima se pridaje paznja u medijima.Ajmo lepo nas 10ak da se skupimo i uradimo studiju o uticaju zagrevanja procesora pri surfovanju Burek forumom,na mikroklimu Balkana,a onda pravac to saljemo u NY Times...Vidim naslov,
Grupa Srpskih naucnika sa univerziteta Burek,dosla je do saznanja,da bi u naredne 3 godine....
 
Dokle bre ti naucnici...

Ovo je nešto što se u prošlosti dešavalo tako da će se opet, pre ili kasnije, desiti.

Možda bude interesantno na vojnom planu.
Bez fensi tehnologije velike sile a i svi ostali biće veoma ranjivi. 
Vojnici na "mirovnim misijama" biće odsečeni i ostavljeni bez podrške.
Neki u svemu tome mogu videti šansu tako da su nemiri i ratovi očekivani.

Bez struje život u velikim gradovima nije moguć. Puno ljudi krenulo bi put sela što bi neminovno dovelo do sukoba oko hrane.

Ako se posledice sunčeve oluje ne spreče, crno nam se piše. 

E, sad se vidi koliko ce Talibani biti u prednosti. "Hej mister Taliban talili banana"

Salu na stranu, ako to bude kako ovi pricaju (u trajanju od tri godine), onda smo najebali, jer cemo se vratiti u srednji vek na neko vreme. Rulja nece izdrzati pritisaki, uspanicit ce se, nastace kradje, tuca, sranje i ubijanje. Ne valja to, zato trebalo bi najozbiljnije da izadju sa tim u javnost a ne kao pretpostavka. Ako ce biti, onda da se spremimo, a ako nisu sigurni onda na rizik...

Moj recept za kataklizme je naci dobro mesto naruciti kafu i posmatrati. Moze da se zivi i bez struje, samo ako su ljudi pametni, ali toga se treba najvise plasiti, jer je rulja nesposobna za zivot - navikli se na samoposlugu, tv i mobilni. Ne znaju da trpe samocu i tisinu, mrze ceo svet, nista im ne valja, hoce bolje, vise, odmah i sve. Nema tu srece brajko moj ni sa strujom ni bez struje.

Dosta da se prisetimo Bf-a, sve je jasno. Ako skikne net bar cemo njega da se ratosiljamo

Onda definitivno nece moci da se trosi vise nego sto se proizvede tako da bf moze samo da podrzi ovu pricu...

Bf i njegove price!

Moze da se desi, posledice ce biti kratkotrajne, uglavnom strada stabilna i mobilna telefonska i naponske mreze, mislim da je cela stvar preduvana, pogotovo meseci bez struje i tako te price neke... isto sranje kao plazenje covecanstva od strasnih asteroida, meteora i slicnih sranja koje bi napravile strahotu na zemlji .. pljuc pljuc...

Space storm alert: 90 seconds from catastrophe

или како американци не седе скрштених руку:
http://thomas.loc.gov/home/gpoxmlc111/h5026_eh.xml
 
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Severe Space Weather--Social and Economic Impacts

That's the surprising conclusion of a NASA-funded study by the National Academy of Sciences entitled Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts. In the 132-page report, experts detailed what might happen to our modern, high-tech society in the event of a "super solar flare" followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm. They found that almost nothing is immune from space weather—not even the water in your bathroom.
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The problem begins with the electric power grid. "Electric power is modern society's cornerstone technology on which virtually all other infrastructures and services depend," the report notes. Yet it is particularly vulnerable to bad space weather. Ground currents induced during geomagnetic storms can actually melt the copper windings of transformers at the heart of many power distribution systems. Sprawling power lines act like antennas, picking up the currents and spreading the problem over a wide area. The most famous geomagnetic power outage happened during a space storm in March 1989 when six million people in Quebec lost power for 9 hours:


According to the report, power grids may be more vulnerable than ever. The problem is interconnectedness. In recent years, utilities have joined grids together to allow long-distance transmission of low-cost power to areas of sudden demand. On a hot summer day in California, for instance, people in Los Angeles might be running their air conditioners on power routed from Oregon. It makes economic sense—but not necessarily geomagnetic sense. Interconnectedness makes the system susceptible to wide-ranging "cascade failures."
To estimate the scale of such a failure, report co-author John Kappenmann of the Metatech Corporation looked at the great geomagnetic storm of May 1921, which produced ground currents as much as ten times stronger than the 1989 Quebec storm, and modeled its effect on the modern power grid. He found more than 350 transformers at risk of permanent damage and 130 million people without power. The loss of electricity would ripple across the social infrastructure with "water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, fuel re-supply and so on."
"The concept of interdependency," the report notes, "is evident in the unavailability of water due to long-term outage of electric power--and the inability to restart an electric generator without water on site."

Above: What if the May 1921 superstorm occurred today? A US map of vulnerable transformers with areas of probable system collapse encircled. A state-by-state map of transformer vulnerability is also available: click here. Credit: National Academy of Sciences.

The strongest geomagnetic storm on record is the Carrington Event of August-September 1859, named after British astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare with his unaided eye while he was projecting an image of the sun on a white screen. Geomagnetic activity triggered by the explosion electrified telegraph lines, shocking technicians and setting their telegraph papers on fire; Northern Lights spread as far south as Cuba and Hawaii; auroras over the Rocky Mountains were so bright, the glow woke campers who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. Best estimates rank the Carrington Event as 50% or more stronger than the superstorm of May 1921.

"A contemporary repetition of the Carrington Event would cause … extensive social and economic disruptions," the report warns. Power outages would be accompanied by radio blackouts and satellite malfunctions; telecommunications, GPS navigation, banking and finance, and transportation would all be affected. Some problems would correct themselves with the fading of the storm: radio and GPS transmissions could come back online fairly quickly. Other problems would be lasting: a burnt-out multi-ton transformer, for instance, can take weeks or months to repair. The total economic impact in the first year alone could reach $2 trillion, some 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina or, to use a timelier example, a few TARPs.



Above: A web of interdependencies makes the modern economy especially sensitive to solar storms. Source: Dept. of Homeland Security. [Larger image]

What's the solution? The report ends with a call for infrastructure designed to better withstand geomagnetic disturbances, improved GPS codes and frequencies, and improvements in space weather forecasting. Reliable forecasting is key. If utility and satellite operators know a storm is coming, they can take measures to reduce damage—e.g., disconnecting wires, shielding vulnerable electronics, powering down critical hardware. A few hours without power is better than a few weeks.

NASA has deployed a fleet of spacecraft to study the sun and its eruptions. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the twin STEREO probes, ACE, Wind and others are on duty 24/7. NASA physicists use data from these missions to understand the underlying physics of flares and geomagnetic storms; personnel at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center use the findings, in turn, to hone their forecasts.
At the moment, no one knows when the next super solar storm will erupt. It could be 100 years away or just 100 days. It's something to think about the next time you flush.

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/21jan_severespaceweather/